Andrea Andolfatto
Bocconi University | Andrea Andolfatto

I am a Ph.D. student in Finance at Bocconi University.

My research interests include Asset Pricing, Machine Learning, Behavioral Finance, and Decentralized Finance.

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Research

Working Papers

From Numbers to Words: Breaking Down Institutional Beliefs

with Federico Bastianello · [SSRN]

Abstract: Using Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) reports, in which managers publish long-horizon forecasts and explain how they construct them, we show how they form beliefs about returns, volatilities, and correlations. They decompose return expectations into broad building blocks across asset classes, but assign different values to them. For U.S. equity, valuation change is the largest net source of disagreement. Growth expectations, however, partly offset valuation-change expectations because the two are strongly negatively correlated, so return expectations understate disagreement in the underlying views. In most non-U.S. equity markets, growth is the main source of disagreement. This matters for portfolios: equity allocations load about twice as strongly on growth expectations as on valuation-change expectations. Three mechanisms shape belief formation: managers anchor to peer consensus, use different modeling assumptions, and process information through narratives that differ in complexity and topic attention. Modeling assumptions such as mean reversion and historical calibration predict systematic forecast differences. Narrative complexity and topic attention predict responses to news: managers with more complex or valuation-focused narratives respond less to positive earnings news, whereas attention to dividend yield or downturn risks is associated with stronger responses. Comparisons with N-CSR shareholder letters show that CMA narratives reflect persistent institution-specific investment views. Volatility and correlation beliefs, by contrast, remain backward-looking.

Presentations: EFA 2026 (scheduled), NBER SI Asset Pricing 2026, WFA 2026, FIRS 2026, EFMA 2026, Bocconi Ph.D. Workshop in Behavioral Economics and Finance 2026, Bocconi Workshop on Machine Learning and Financial Decision Making 2026, Harvard Behavioral Reading Group 2025

Decentralized and Centralized Options Trading

with Lorenzo Schönleber · [SSRN]

Abstract: On-Chain options are option contracts implemented as smart contracts and traded on decentralized exchanges. Although decentralized exchanges dominate spot markets, they account for only 1% of total options volume. We study this puzzle by documenting stylized facts about decentralized options trading and how automated market-making, a new model of liquidity provision, contributes to market fragmentation and persistent price differences across venues. Empirically, on-chain option prices exceed those on centralized exchanges, driven by blockchain-specific risks, automated market makers' risk-mitigation mechanisms, and volume and net buying pressure. We propose a theory to explain the price difference and empirically verify its key implications.

Presentations: Canadian Derivatives Institute (CDI) Conference 2025, 2nd Knut Wicksell Conference on Crypto and Fintech 2025, Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific Association of Derivatives 2025, ToDeFi 2025, Tech 4 Finance #2: AI and Blockchain 2025, 1st Bocconi PRIN Workshop in Crypto and Quantitative Finance 2025, International Fintech Research Conference 2025, IFMB 2025, AFA Annual Meeting 2025, AFA Annual Meeting - Poster Session 2025, AlgoDefi24 Workshop 2024, IRMC 2024, FMA European Conference 2024, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore 2024, 2nd Structured Retail Products and Derivatives Conference 2024, Lancaster-Manchester-Warwick Joint PhD Workshop on Quantitative Finance and Financial Technology 2024

Awards and Grants

  • 2026 - BAFFI Ph.D. Fellowship, BAFFI Centre, Bocconi University
  • 2026 - Pre-EFA Ph.D. program Travel Grant
  • 2026 - The Brattle Group Ph.D. Candidate Awards For Outstanding Research, WFA
  • 2025 - Best Paper Award, International Fintech Research Conference
  • 2024 - AFA Doctoral Student Travel Grant
  • 2024 - Fintech Chair Grant sponsored by the Université Paris Dauphine

Teaching

Instructor

  • Finance 3 - Empirical Asset Pricing (Ph.D.) - Bocconi University, 2023-2024. Course held by Prof. Max Croce.
  • Finance 4 - Empirical Corporate Finance (Ph.D.) - Bocconi University, 2023-2024. Course held by Prof. Nicolas Serrano Velarde.
  • Excel for Finance (Undergraduate) - University of Verona, 2019-2020. Course held by Prof. Marco Minozzo.

Teaching Assistant

  • Theory of Finance - Bocconi University. Course held by Prof. Claudio Tebaldi (2023-2024), Prof. Florian Nagler (2024-).
  • Big Data in Finance - Bocconi University. Course held by Prof. Clement Mazet-Sonilhac (2023-).
  • Advanced Corporate Finance for Management - Bocconi University. Course held by Prof. Jakob Ahm Sorensen (2024-).
  • Corporate Finance - Bocconi University. Course held by Prof. Nicolas Serrano Velarde (2025-).